Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The upcoming Russian elections could be a turning point, leading to a massive escalation in the war in Ukraine.
Time is running out for a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine, according to the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Pavel warned that Ukraine has a mere two months to jump-start peace negotiations before Moscow raises the stakes.
The retired general explained that Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting out domestic political cycles before taking drastic steps.
Pavel told the paper: “Russia will have parliamentary elections in September. President Putin will hardly declare mobilisation before then, but once the elections are over, the window will shrink.”
Keep up the pressure
A widespread military draft would likely spark deep anger among Russian citizens. Right now, everyday people are already feeling the pinch from the conflict, with Ukrainian drone strikes causing severe fuel shortages and long lines at petrol stations.
Domestic trust in Putin has fallen to 69 per cent, its lowest point since the 2022 invasion.
Pavel believes this growing domestic stress creates a perfect opportunity to force the Kremlin to the negotiating table, provided Western allies keep up the pressure.
Advocate of pressuring Putin
Pavel is a retired general and the former chair of the NATO Military Committee, and he has previously pushed for NATO to show Russia that provocations will not be tolerated.
In May, Pavel argued that it was time NATO “showed its teeth” after Russia had repeatedly tested the alliance’s resolve.
According to The Guardian, Pavel suggested a response decisive enough to show Moscow that it should not escalate its provocations.
Is Zelenskyy thinking the same thing?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in late June that he had authorised a special 40-day operation for the Security Service of Ukraine.
The target of the operation is to pressure Putin into ending the war.
The 40-day deadline falls in early August, roughly a month before the elections in Russia.
