Kathrine Frich
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin framed it as a decisive moment that would reshape Europe’s security order.
Instead, the conflict has evolved into a prolonged war that continues to strain Russia’s military power, economy and international standing.
Analysts argue that this outcome was not inevitable.
Rather, it flowed from a series of fundamental choices that went wrong and reinforced one another over time.
A war that never needed to start
Perhaps the most consequential mistake was the decision to launch the invasion at all. What was intended as a swift show of force turned into a grinding conflict with no clear end.
Russia is now locked into a war it cannot easily win or abandon. The political, diplomatic and economic costs have far exceeded what the Kremlin appeared to anticipate at the outset.
Misreading Ukraine
Moscow expected Ukraine to fracture under pressure and offer only limited resistance. Instead, the invasion unified Ukrainian society and strengthened its sense of national identity.
This miscalculation also extended to Ukraine’s partners. Western governments responded faster and more decisively than the Kremlin had expected, supplying weapons, intelligence and financial support that proved critical to Kyiv’s defence.
Too few forces, too late
Russia’s initial assault relied on a limited number of troops, reflecting confidence that Ukrainian resistance would collapse quickly. That assumption proved false.
When Kyiv held firm, Russian forces lacked the manpower and logistics needed for a rapid breakthrough. The failure to commit sufficient forces early on cost Russia momentum and contributed to heavy losses.
Turning the war into destiny
By framing the invasion as an existential struggle for Russia’s survival, Vladimir Putin raised the stakes dramatically. Such rhetoric left little room for compromise or a negotiated exit.
This approach also hardened opposition abroad and at home. Defeat or retreat, once politically manageable, became far more dangerous for the Kremlin to contemplate.
Strengthening the very alliance he feared
One of the war’s most ironic outcomes has been the revival of NATO. Rather than weakening the alliance, Russia’s actions unified it.
Finland and Sweden joined, defence budgets increased and NATO’s presence along Russia’s borders expanded. The bloc Putin sought to intimidate is now more cohesive than it has been in decades.
