Kenneth Glad
Fresh figures from Ukrainian sources, alongside Western research, are refocusing attention on the scale of losses in the war with Russia. The exact numbers remain contested and, in many cases, unverifiable. Even so, the direction of travel is clear enough: casualties are mounting, not easing. Taken together, recent statements and longer-term studies suggest a conflict increasingly shaped by endurance rather than decisive breakthroughs.
A January 2026 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) portrays the war as a slow, grinding struggle. It estimates that Russian forces had suffered close to 1.2 million casualties by the end of 2025.
That figure is striking, even when allowing for uncertainty. Modern wars rarely produce losses on this scale without dramatic territorial shifts to show for it.
Instead, the report describes a battlefield where progress often comes in tiny increments. In some areas, advances are measured in tens of meters per day. The cost, however, remains consistently high.
Much of this is tied to the nature of the fighting itself. Dense defensive lines, minefields, and constant drone surveillance have made even small assaults risky. What might once have been a routine advance now carries significant human consequences.
Leaders highlight imbalance
It is in this context that recent political comments land. Earlier this week, Finnish President Alexander Stubb pointed to what he described as a sharp disparity in losses.
“Over the past four months — forgive the grimness, and I understand these are harsh words, but over the past four months, Ukraine has killed or wounded 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers every month,” he said, according to The New Voice of Ukraine.
He went further, suggesting that as many as five Russian soldiers are lost for every Ukrainian killed.
That ratio cannot be independently verified, and such claims should be treated cautiously.
Still, similar estimates have circulated among Western observers for some time, even if the exact proportions differ.
Claims, data, and limits
Kyiv continues to release daily battlefield updates, putting total Russian casualties at roughly 1.3 million, including killed and wounded. Daily losses, it says, remain in the hundreds.
Ukrainian military representatives argue that drones now play a decisive role, potentially accounting for up to 90 percent of Russian losses in some sectors. If accurate, it would mark one of the most significant tactical shifts of the war so far.
There are, however, clear limits to what can be confirmed. Moscow rarely publishes comparable figures, and independent verification is scarce.
Numbers emerge from a mix of official statements, intelligence estimates, and battlefield reporting, each with its own margin of error.
Even with those caveats, the broader picture holds. Losses remain high and persistent.
For Russia, that raises uncomfortable questions about manpower and sustainability.
For Ukraine, it underscores a different challenge: How long it can maintain defensive resilience under constant pressure.
Sources: The New Voice of Ukraine, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
