Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Ukrainian use of drones are keeping most of the Russian forces from ever seeing a Ukrainian soldier before getting attacked.
1,292,170.
That is the estimated number of Russian personnel killed or seriously wounded in the war in Ukraine so far, according to a March 26 update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
In the last 24 hours alone, Russian forces have lost more than 1,200 personnel (1,210 to be exact), again according to estimates from the ministry.
This comes as drones play an increasingly important role on the battlefield, especially for the Ukrainian defence.
In an interview with The Economist, the top commander of Ukraine’s unmanned forces, Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, said that his units account for more than a third of Russian losses, despite making up only 2% of the total personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The increase in drone usage also means that many Russian soldiers never even see Ukrainian fighters before being attacked.
In fact, according to a prominent Russian military blogger, up to 9 out of 10 Russian soldiers are killed before even reaching the line of contact.
Death from above
The blogger, War Correspondent Kotenok, published a lengthy critique of the Russian war effort on Telegram on March 25. He wrote:
“Consider these figures: 80–90% of personnel losses occur already at the stage of advancing toward the line of contact. In other words, 8 or 9 out of 10 soldiers are killed on the way, without ever engaging the enemy or even seeing them.”
He does not provide any sources to support these numbers.
Kotenok goes on to explain that Ukrainian use of FPV drones accounts for most of the losses.
A frozen front line
Since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the front line has seen few, if any, changes.
In a December 31, 2025, update on the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia had only managed to seize 4,831 square kilometers in all of 2025.
This is roughly 0.8% of Ukraine’s total territory.
Kotenok has noted this as well:
“The front has turned into a zone of localized, purely tactical movements, with advances and retreats of just over a hundred meters per day. At this rate, the war could continue for a hundred years—and this is not an exaggeration,” he says in the Telegram post.
Spring offensive doomed to fail
Over the weekend, ISW assessed that Russia had launched its spring–summer offensive of 2026, targeting the Ukrainian “Fortress Belt” in Donetsk Oblast.
However, the think tank assesses that the Russian offensive will likely only achieve small, tactical gains that will be far outweighed by the losses required to achieve them.
At the same time, ISW noted that Russian authorities are shaping a narrative to explain slow progress.
A Russian State Duma lawmaker said on March 23 that “losses are inevitable in any war, but Russian troops will try to reduce them by advancing slowly in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk,” Russian news outlet Lenta reported.
Sources: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, The Economist, Telegram post from War Correspondent Kotenok, Institute for the Study of War, Lenta
