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The fuel shortage on Crimea has forced the authorities to impose strict rationing.
The Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula has imposed restrictions on fuel and gasoline amid shortages caused by Ukrainian intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns.
The situation on the peninsula is now so dire that the governor of Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, announced on Telegram that the authorities have imposed restrictions on how much gasoline and fuel citizens can buy.
The limit is set at 20 liters (5.28 US gallons) of fuel per week.
This is a stark contrast to a May 29 post on Telegram from the Kremlin-appointed leader of Crimea, Sergei Aksjonov, where he said that residents would be allowed to buy 20 liters of fuel per day.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the restrictions are most likely a result of the successful Ukrainian strike campaigns, which are aimed at choking supply lines, primarily to Russian forces in occupied territories.
And the first Russian retreats have begun to emerge.
No supplies, no troops
According to information from the ATESH partisan group, Kremlin forces have started pulling out of the Kinburn Spit after their supply routes completely collapsed.
An undercover agent working inside Russia’s Dnepr military headquarters leaked the intelligence. Without a steady flow of food, fuel, and ammunition, front-line troops simply could not hold out any longer.
Heavy casualties and relentless drone attacks have left the remaining forces scattered and vulnerable. The underground group explained that the Russian military had already moved some troops to other fronts, leaving the peninsula dangerously understaffed.
“Only the remnants of units remain on the spit, and they are no longer capable of maintaining a defense. The occupiers’ logistical system in this sector has completely broken down,” ATESH said in a statement on Telegram.
Can Putin be forced to retreat from Crimea?
The Crimean Peninsula has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and it has become an important logistical hub for Russian operations in the rest of Ukraine.
However, the peninsula has only a few ways of receiving supplies, including Putin’s 19 km Kerch Bridge, which links the Russian mainland to the peninsula, and Ukraine is continuously targeting the limited supply lines that remain.
If the situation for Russian forces on the peninsula continues to deteriorate, one can’t help but wonder: Can Ukraine actually force Putin to abandon Crimea?
It’s becoming increasingly possible
On June 4, RBC-Ukraine interviewed Refat Chubarov, Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, on that very topic. Note that this interview was conducted before the Russian authorities imposed fuel restrictions on the peninsula.
In the interview, Chubarov said that hope among the thousands of Kyiv-loyal citizens in Crimea is growing stronger and that if Ukraine succeeds in enforcing a total blockade of Russian supply lines to the peninsula, “the Russians will have no choice but to figure out how to evacuate their forces from Crimea.”
He emphasizes that he is no military expert, but that, based on what he has heard and read, analysts believe that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge could trigger a chain reaction of events leading to a Russian retreat.
It is important to note that this is all speculation, but what we do know for a fact is that the situation in Crimea is changing rapidly due to the Ukrainian strike campaign.
The idea of Ukraine forcing Russia to retreat from Crimea was actually floated as early as June 2024 in a report by the Atlantic Council.
