Kenneth Glad
Four weeks into the conflict, hopes of a quick resolution are fading. Iran has rejected US proposals, while tensions are beginning to show between Washington and Israel over how the war was initially framed. What looked straightforward at the outset is becoming more complicated.
Iran has turned down a US-backed plan to halt the fighting, according to Iranian state media, cited by the Wall Street Journal, instead demanding the withdrawal of American forces from the Gulf and financial compensation.
Tehran is also seeking greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption there could quickly affect global prices, something markets have reacted to before during past US-Iran standoffs.
A US official told the Daily Mail the demands were “ridiculous” and “unrealistic,” reflecting how far apart the sides remain.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have also warned civilians to stay away from areas near US military sites. It was a stark message, and not a reassuring one.
Strategy shifts
In Washington, expectations are being adjusted. Early assumptions that pressure could rapidly weaken Iran’s leadership have not held up, according to reporting by Axios.
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in the conflict, Iran’s governing system has remained intact, with key factions consolidating power rather than fragmenting.
President Donald Trump has continued to emphasize diplomacy. “Talks are ongoing and… they are going very well,” he said, while postponing a decision on possible strikes against energy infrastructure.
Vice President JD Vance has taken on a more visible role, meeting Gulf leaders as the US explores potential negotiations through intermediaries such as Egypt and Turkey.
Allies diverge
Some of the sharpest disagreements are now surfacing privately. Axios first reported that Vance challenged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call, questioning how the case for regime change had been presented to the White House.
The concern was blunt: “Before the war, Bibi really sold it to the President as being easy, as regime change being a lot likelier than it was. And the VP was clear-eyed about some of those statements.”
That exchange points to a broader reassessment in Washington about both the risks and the timeline of the conflict.
A separate controversy added to the strain. The right-leaning Israeli outlet Israel Hayom claimed, according to Times of Israel, that Vance had confronted Netanyahu over settler violence in the West Bank.
The White House rejected the report as false and suggested it may have been intended to undermine the vice president. Israeli officials denied any involvement.
The war continues, but without a clear path forward. Oil markets are watching closely, and so are US allies who may now be bracing for a longer, more unpredictable phase.
Sources: Daily Mail, Axios, Times of Israel, Wall Street Journal
