Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia likely used the self-imposed Easter Truce to stockpile weapons for a massive attack, that hit Ukraine the night before Thursday.
A shift in battlefield strategy is reshaping how Russia conducts long-range attacks on Ukraine, and according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the evolving approach appears designed to stretch defenses and increase pressure on civilian areas.
Ukrainian officials say the pattern first became clear during a major wave of strikes in late March, raising new concerns about air defense capacity.
New attack pattern
According to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat, Russian forces staged their strikes in coordinated waves. Overnight drone launches were used as a form of reconnaissance ahead of heavier attacks.
He said cruise missiles followed in an initial wave, with ballistic missiles launched later. The sequencing appears intended to test and weaken Ukraine’s defenses before harder-to-stop weapons arrive.
Ukrainian forces typically intercept drones and cruise missiles at higher rates, but ballistic missiles remain more difficult to counter.
Strain on defenses
The tactic likely aims to exhaust Ukraine’s air defense systems before delivering more destructive strikes. Kyiv relies heavily on US-supplied Patriot systems to intercept ballistic threats.
Limited global supplies of Patriot interceptors could further complicate Ukraine’s response. Analysts suggest Moscow may be factoring in competing demands, including conflicts in the Middle East.
The result is a broader threat footprint, with longer attack windows and increased risk to civilian infrastructure.
18 casualties in overnight attack
The night before Thursday April 16, Russian forces launched more than 700 missiles and drones in multiple waves targeting several areas of Ukraine.
According to the BBC, at least 18 people were killed in the attack, including a child.
According to the Kremlin, a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Krasnodar region killed two, also including a child.
Stockpiling weapons
ISW believes Russia accumulated drones and missiles ahead of recent large-scale strikes, including during a self-declared Easter ceasefire in April.
That pause may have allowed Moscow to prepare for concentrated attacks at a time of its choosing. Similar stockpiling likely preceded the late March barrage involving nearly 1,000 weapons.
Large strike packages have often coincided with key moments in diplomatic talks, particularly those involving the United States.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian Air Force
