Nicolai Haugsted
Putin’s position is weakening, but analysts say the danger is growing.
Mounting economic pressure and growing signs of public frustration inside Russia have prompted fresh debate over Vladimir Putin’s position. Rather than viewing those developments as a clear path toward ending the war, some analysts argue they could make the Kremlin even more unpredictable.
An analysis highlighted by The Independent warns that increasing strain on Russia may encourage escalation instead of restraint, despite visible cracks in the country’s economy.
War takes a growing toll on Russia
Heavy Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure have disrupted fuel production across Russia, adding to broader economic difficulties that have intensified throughout the conflict.
Rising inflation, higher food prices and fuel shortages are increasingly affecting daily life, while military spending continues to consume a significant share of the country’s resources.
According to the analysis, the financial burden of sustaining the war has reached levels that are becoming harder to ignore, placing additional pressure on both the government and ordinary Russians.
Public mood appears to be shifting
Support for continuing the war is no longer as strong as it was during the early stages of the invasion, the report argues.
Growing dissatisfaction has reportedly become more visible not only among ordinary citizens but also within circles that previously backed the Kremlin, including some nationalist military bloggers who have become more vocal in their criticism.
Although frustration appears to be increasing, analysts caution against assuming that domestic pressure alone will force a major political change. Russia’s leadership still maintains extensive control over state institutions and the media landscape.
Why analysts describe Putin as a “cornered rat”
The analysis draws on a story Putin has previously shared about his childhood, recalling how a rat trapped in a corner suddenly attacked when it had nowhere left to escape.
That comparison is used to illustrate a broader concern: leaders facing mounting pressure may respond by taking greater risks rather than searching for compromise.
Instead of interpreting Russia’s current difficulties as an automatic advantage for Ukraine or the West, the report argues that a weakened Kremlin could become more dangerous if it seeks to regain momentum through further military escalation or more aggressive actions abroad.
