Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
A former general recently warned, that the window for reaching a diplomatic end to the war is running out, and may be closed in a matter of months.
Russian lawmakers recently approved a major legal shift that changes who can serve in uniform.
On July 22, the Russian State Duma passed a bill allowing citizens with active criminal records to sign military contracts during formal mobilization periods.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this legislation clears the path for individuals convicted of serious crimes, including drug smuggling and organized crime. Instead of serving prison time, convicts can go straight to the front lines.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Viktor Goremykin publicly praised the move on July 22. He stated that the new law will expand the pool of available recruits and boost military recruitment efforts across Russia throughout 2026.
However, the ISW sees a larger pattern behind the decision. The think tank reports that the Kremlin is systematically setting the stage for a much broader draft.
Preparing for trouble
Finding fresh recruits is only half the battle for Russian leadership. The Kremlin is also quietly preparing for public pushback inside the country, where formal mobilization remains a sensitive and deeply unpopular topic.
On July 21, Russia’s militarized internal security force, Rosgvardia, introduced proposed civil defense regulations. These updates aim to shield Russian society from unspecified “dangers” if the government declares mobilization, martial law, or wartime conditions.
The legislative prep work started well before this summer. Vladimir Putin signed a bill in November 2025 that gives him power to send reservists into combat zones without formally declaring a national mobilization.
ISW believes the Kremlin might use those earlier powers for rolling reserve call-ups before announcing full mobilization. Ultimately, any final decree depends on Putin’s personal view of the current battlefield and internal political stability across the country.
Two months left
In a recent interview with The Telegraph, the President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel warned that Ukraine has a mere two months to jump-start peace negotiations before Moscow raises the stakes.
The retired general explained that Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting out domestic political cycles before taking drastic steps.
Pavel told the paper: “Russia will have parliamentary elections in September. President Putin will hardly declare mobilisation before then, but once the elections are over, the window will shrink.”
Advocate of pressuring Putin
Pavel is a retired general and the former chair of the NATO Military Committee, and he has previously pushed for NATO to show Russia that provocations will not be tolerated.
In May, Pavel argued that it was time NATO “showed its teeth” after Russia had repeatedly tested the alliance’s resolve.
According to The Guardian, Pavel suggested a response decisive enough to show Moscow that it should not escalate its provocations.
