Kathrine Frich
Western countries have spent years trying to pressure Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine.
Despite these efforts, Moscow has adapted, keeping its war machine running while shifting trade and strengthening ties with countries outside the West.
At the same time, while there have been reports of slow progress and stalled advances on parts of the front line, Russia has not suffered a collapse.
Instead, the war has settled into a prolonged and grinding conflict, one that US intelligence now believes may ultimately favor the Kremlin.
Russia’s growing confidence
A new US intelligence assessment cited by United24media, suggests the Kremlin believes time is on its side.
According to the Annual Threat Assessment released on March 18, Russia remains confident it can win on the battlefield and ultimately dictate the terms of any peace deal.
“Moscow almost certainly remains confident that it will prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine and force a settlement on its terms,” the report states.
This suggests the Kremlin may have little incentive to compromise in ongoing negotiations.
Fears of escalation
The report also raises serious concerns about how the war could evolve if it continues.
US officials warn that prolonging the conflict increases the risk of a wider confrontation, including the possibility of direct clashes between Russia and NATO forces.
Russia’s repeated nuclear threats, combined with its use of advanced missile systems, are seen as factors that could further destabilise the situation.
Despite heavy losses since the invasion began, US intelligence believes Russia’s military capabilities remain significant.
The report notes that ground forces have been replenished, while air and naval power remain largely intact and in some areas even improved.
This has allowed Moscow to sustain pressure on Ukraine while continuing to invest in new weapons and technology.
Beyond the battlefield
Russia’s strategy is not limited to military action alone.
The assessment talks about the use of cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage and energy pressure as tools to influence events beyond Ukraine.
It also points to deepening ties with countries such as China, Iran and North Korea, strengthening Moscow’s position on the global stage.
While the report suggests a negotiated settlement could still change the course of the war, there is little indication that such a breakthrough is close.
Ukraine continues to push for stronger international support, while European leaders insist that pressure on Russia must not be reduced.
For now, the intelligence assessment paints a clear picture; a war that is far from over, and a Kremlin that believes it can still win.
Sources: US Intelligence Community, Kyiv Independent, United24Media
