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Spoiler alert: It does not involve peace in Ukraine.
Exiled Russian dissident and former chess champion Garry Kasparov believes Moscow has zero interest in ending its campaign in Ukraine.
In an interview with Politico, he warns that hopes for peace are misplaced. While Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna noted that Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure have weakened Russia, Kasparov argues this pressure only invites a harder response.
“Putin always escalated when he felt he was in trouble … the most natural escalation is the provocation,” Kasparov said.
To prove his point, the activist highlighted recent Russian legislative changes that eliminate the medical examinations previously required to draft new soldiers.
This shift indicates that Moscow is preparing for an expanded conflict. Indeed, all signs point to “War, war, war, war.”
Testing the alliance
Kasparov fears this next step could target NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Estonia or Latvia. Moscow would not need a massive invasion. Instead, Russian forces could simply occupy a small Baltic border town and wait to see how the West reacts.
If Washington hesitates to defend its ally, the entire security alliance would instantly collapse. “NATO is no longer there,” Kasparov warned. This matches fears in Brussels, where NATO chief Mark Rutte admitted “nobody” knows how to force Putin to negotiate.
A new strategy
To defeat the Kremlin, Kasparov wants European leaders to abandon compromise and commit fully to a Ukrainian victory. He suggests targeting Moscow’s talent pool. By offering legal documents to engineers, finance experts, and IT specialists, Europe could quickly drain the regime’s brain trust.
“What is Putin’s weakest point? Brains. Computer experts, engineers, financiers … They don’t need social security support, they just need documents. So how about offering them a chance to change sides?” Kasparov asked.
Beyond that, he believes that targeting the finances of the Russian elite is the fastest way to trigger a split. “Our best hope is to separate Putin from the elites,” Kasparov said. “Ukrainians are doing a very good job because every time they hit something, someone loses money.”
Europe must also increase sanctions and ban tourist visas. For Kasparov, the path forward is clear. “We have to make sure Putin loses,” he said, “because the moment Putin loses the war, he goes down.”
