Anna Hartz
The war in Ukraine has dragged on for years, and the numbers tell a difficult story for Russia.
Since 2024, Moscow’s forces have taken a little over 8,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land. It sounds like a lot, yet it is only a tiny part of the country. Over that same period, the cost in lives has been enormous. Analysts say Russia has suffered more than 800,000 casualties, and the total since the full-scale invasion began has passed 1.2 million. These losses are now increasing so fast that many experts believe the Kremlin cannot keep up.
Recruitment cannot keep up
A recent review by the Helsinki-based Black Bird Group shows that Russian forces are losing around 40,000 soldiers every month, according to Ziare. This pace is difficult for any army to replace. Drones have made large areas of eastern Ukraine extremely dangerous. Soldiers who step into open ground risk being spotted and attacked almost instantly. The technology has shifted much of the fighting toward the defender’s advantage.
Even so, Vladimir Putin continues to present the war as a matter of endurance. In his view, Russia’s large population and sizeable equipment reserves guarantee victory sooner or later. Some international figures have echoed that view. In December 2025, Donald Trump told a reporter that Russia’s size would eventually prevail. Four years into the war, that prediction looks far less certain.
Western officials say that in the past two months, Russia has been losing more soldiers than it can recruit. The shortfall is estimated at around 10,000. The economy is also under pressure. Nearly half of the state budget is being spent on the military and on servicing war-related debt. Revenue from oil and gas has dropped sharply because of sanctions and falling prices. Some Russian analysts now warn that the situation is becoming unstable.
Hacker group fooled Russian Troops
Ukraine is also struggling. Its army is tired, and power outages continue across the country after repeated Russian strikes destroyed much of its electricity production. But there has been a shift on the battlefield. When Elon Musk restricted Russian access to the Starlink service, many Russian drones stopped working. Ukrainian units quickly used the opening to retake ground near Sosnivka and move toward Huliapole.
A Ukrainian hacker group later fooled Russian troops into reconnecting their terminals, exposing more than two thousand systems. Even with these gains, Ukrainian commanders say they need heavier weapons. Russian forces are sheltering in tall buildings that Ukrainian drones cannot penetrate. Without stronger equipment, Ukraine’s advances will be slow.
Inside Russia, the government is cautious about launching a full public mobilization. It may still recruit several hundred thousand more soldiers this year through incentives and ongoing conscription. But if losses continue at the current pace, the Kremlin may have to consider a much larger call-up. Whether it can do so without political consequences is another question entirely.
Sources: Ziare
